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Gartner’s 2009 “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies”: Reflections and prognostications

The 2009 Gartner Hype Cycle Special Report evaluates the maturity of 1,650 technologies and trends in 79 technology, topic and industry areas. I applied the Gartner Hype Cycle Concept to the Web 1.0 Internet Boom and (current) Web 2.0 Slope and found Search to be a key Web 1.0 winner and an overlay of Meritocracy to Search Results to be a big bet for Web 2.0…

Gartner’s Hype Cycle Special Report for 2009

The Gartner Group just published their annual Hype Cycle Report for 2009. You can find the report here.

In an approach similar to that used by the Chasm Group, this report combines Schumpeter’s concepts of Creative Destruction for innovation with the ADKAR model for individual and organization change management. It proposes that new innovations and technologies traverse five stages:

  1. Technology Trigger. When some event or product triggers rapid growth in the use of the technology
  2. Peak of Inflated Expectations. When the “bubble of hype” (vs. the achieved results) regarding use of the technology reaches its peak
  3. Trough of Disillusionment. When the bubble bursts and people say, “I told you that was just a fad.”
  4. Slope of Enlightenment. When the technology becomes sufficiently mature, standardized and adopted to start generating mainstream market results
  5. Plateau of Productivity. When these results begin to flatten out and reengineer of use of the technology (or a new technology) is needed to create big productivity changes

The diagram below captures a snapshot of Gartner’s view of “what technologies are where” on the current lifecycle. What has captured the attention of most is that Micro-blogging (e.g., Twitter) is now entering the trough.

gartner_hype_cycle

A Reflection on The Internet (Web 1.0) Boom

Reports like this always serve as a good trigger for reflection on the past. My experience is not broad enough to look at the entire technology world of the last 10 years. However, I have been lucky enough to have broad experience in the Internet “Web 1.0” boom. Here are my reflections on how three technologies of the Web 1.0 Internet Boom weather Gartner’s Hype Curve:

Big Winner: Consumer-based Search Traversed the Curve Most Successfully

Search radically changed how we live. We no longer spend lots of time looking though reference materials (from newspaper stock prices to encyclopedias) to find information we need. We now use search, enabling us to find information much more successfully.

Companies like Google have shown this can be a moneymaking industry. However the flatting of competition shows the curve on innovation is also flattening. Clearly something new is needed to create the next spike

Work In-Progress: Enterprise-based Search Is Still Stuck in the Slope of Enlightenment

We still do not have equally powerful search techniques inside the enterprise. Imagine how productive we could be if we simple search for answers to basic questions at work (instead of looking for the internal expert with tribal knowledge.)

Today, most enterprise search engines do not use good algorithms, generating results based primary on document titles. This is still an industry where someone could make a killing if they made it easy both to index a wide range of knowledge sources and search on them effectively.

Left Behind: Instant Messaging

Instant Messaging (IM) was incredibly powerful. I still remember the recorded phone call at AOL where a Customer Service agent showed a retired grandmother how to IM her grandchildren, reducing her long distance telephone fees (and making her cry with happiness when she initiated an IM session with her grandson). IM could have been used in so many places to transform how we communicate. However, it devolved into a service supported only by advertising of private network licensing.

This one makes me particularly sad given my years at AOL (especially my work trying to use IM to transform customer service). Imaging how much better it would be if we did not have to wait on hold (and if customer service agents could IM us links to answers). This does exist, but only in niche areas. The big transformation never came.

A Look to the Future of Web 2.0

Reports like this always serve as a good trigger for prognostication on the future (a scary topic that tests our wisdom.) What will be the biggest winner of the current hype cycle? Again, I am not going to try to boil the ocean of all technologies (groups like Gartner can do this much more effectively). However, I will go out on a limb and make a prediction for what will be a big winner in the Web 2.0 world.

I believe Online Meritocracy will be one of the biggest winners. Why? Because it is useful and it is a natural extension of what we do today:

Today we can search for information easily. In our personal life, if we want to find a gardener in zip code 91362 we can do this in seconds. In our work environment, we can also look up a list of approved vendors that we can purchase consulting services from. However, which of these groups are good? Simple Search does not answer that.

Kim Kobza, CEO of Neighborhood America, often shares a statistic that we are 9x as likely to act on recommendations from a friend or colleague than information found in impersonal references. If we can create technologies that enable us to overlay easily searchable feedback with search results, we can really find the information we are seeking. Imagine a world where I can find gardeners that my neighbors in zip code 91362 or consultants that colleagues in my corporate function have had good results from…

This requires combinations of search technology, social networking, content moderation, survey design, location-based searches and other technologies. We have niche versions of this technology today, mostly in the form of destinations (e.g., Angie’s List, Epinions or Amazon Customer Reviews). However, we don’t have the ability to easily stand this up anywhere we need it (e.g., a B2B, vendor or specialist network for my enterprise or integration of meritocracy into Google or Bing results). There is a lot of market share (and money) for the group who make this clear, easy to use and scalable.

Special Follow-up (January 2011)

The last 12 months have shown how social media, recommendations based on what your friends are doing and commerce have all come together in examples like the rise of Groupon and FourSquare.

Web 2.0: It feels like 1999 all over again

A refresher on the state of Web 1.0 in 1999

I was one of those lucky few to be a part of the explosion of the Internet (not just the dot-com boom but also the earlier DARPA-driven R&D at MIT, CMU, Stanford and Berkeley the 80s). For those of you who do not remember (or — I am sad to remind myself — may be too young to remember) here are some things that were going on in the Web 1.0 world in 1999:

  • The Horsemen of the Internet (Cisco, EMC, Oracle and Sun in the B2B world, Amazon, AOL and Yahoo! in the B2C one) had introduced “new models of doing business that would change everything” to millions of people
  • These models were very technology-centric and focused on “new measures of value” such as click-thru’s, eyeballs, audience, etc. (discarding traditional EPS and PEG values)
  • Lots of “traditional” companies were racing to adopt these models — instead one core to their businesses. (Remember all those tracking stocks like NBCi and Borders Online?)
  • Technology vendors were rushing out tool boxes to build web sites,
  • As same time, analysts were heavily questioning if these models had staying power (the stocks of the horsemen actually dipped heavily at this time — just before rising as part of the last-minute Y2K Technology Gold Rush

The Web 2.0 parallels of today are eerie

This sounds a little familiar what is happening today in the Web 2.0 world (minus the overtones of the current world recession):

  • Thanks to Web 2.0 Horsemen (Facebook, MySpace, LinkedIn and Twitter) millions of people now roughly understand what Web 2.0 means — at least in the consumer space
  • Like 1999, the business models in the Web 2.0 space are still largely in the formative stages (just a few minutes on TechCrunch or Silicon Alley Insider will highlight this)
  • Lots of “traditional” companies were racing to add Web 2.0 offerings — with varying degrees of success. (At least we are avoiding Web 2.0 tracking stocks for now)
  • As the analyst reports attest, the Web 2.0 space is becoming filled with companies who offer “toolboxes that can uses to quickly stand up communities”
  • At the same time, many are asking if “there is any there there” in the Web 2.0 business model (and the valuation of Web 2.0 companies have crashed — ahead of the recession)

What happened after 1999 to Web 1.0

Within five years, the Web 1.0 world have moved to a very different place than it was in 1999. Essentially, it integrated with (instead of disrupting) the rest of the business world. Web technology moved from being an end-to-itself to becoming a means to create value. This significantly changed the market space: web-only companies diminished or disappeared (web hosting, domain name services and email are now commodities) while companies who could use web technology to create value-added Business Solutions created whole new markets. Examples easily come to mind:

  • Content Management systems replaced the build-your-own-website tool kits (and pushed these companies aside)
  • eCommerce platforms became a core purchase for every major CPG company
  • Advertising and creative agencies became Interactive Agencies, providing holistic advertising and brand service across all media channels (pushing the ‘webmaster’ back to the IT department)
  • CRM moved from a back office function to an real-time service to manage revenue creation
  • Digital music replaced the experience of going to the record (or CD) store
  • Searching for information online (instead of going to a library or buying a “List of…” book)

We are now ready for this in the Web 2.0 world

I believe Web 2.0 will follow a similar integration path that Web 1.0 did. Those companies who can figure out how to create value-added Business Services using Web 2.0 communication approaches (be them technology firms of consulting and creative groups) will expand and develop new markets. Those enterprises who fold these services into the day-to-day execution of their mission will realize the most benefit.

If you disagree, the perhaps you can answer the following question for me: what is the value of a blog or a forum? I do not think blogs or forums have much intrinsic value in themselves. However they can create value when integrated into a higher value business service or process.

On the other hand, what is the follow of the following services?:

  • Leveraging your customers to tell you what you need to invest in to sell more (would save a lot on Product Development and increase product success rate)
  • Harnessing citizen input to shape more efficient public budgeting (would save a lot on public referenda)
  • Using the the contributions and input of your customers to drive advertising traffic and urge new customers to buy your product (saves on advertising costs and increases sales)

Not only are these services valuable, they are also broadly applicable, easy to understand (from both a business model and end user perspective). The firms that can create these will become the Vignettes, Crispin Porters, Salesforce.coms and Apples of the Web 2.0 world.

Addendum 1: I am not the only person who thinks this

McKinsely & Company recently included a segment “Six Ways to Make Web 2.0 Work” in their last McKinseyQuarterly publication. This article discussed a very similar evolution of adoption of Web 2.0 “tools” that will overlay existing infrastructure to encourage engagement and participation. They included a graph that shows the same ten-year repetitive cycle:

MckinseyQtr-560px
Credit: www.McKinseyQuarterly.com

Addendum 2: Here we go again

IoT is the third big technology ‘wave’ in the last 50 years — and perhaps the biggest